The Impact of Climate Change on the Global Food Security In Somalia.

Climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate.

The current rise in global average temperature is more rapid than previous changes and is primarily caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and some agricultural and industrial practices increase greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide and methane. Greenhouse gases absorb some of the heat that the Earth radiates after it warms from sunlight. Larger amounts of these gases trap more heat in Earth's lower atmosphere, causing global warming (Lynas, Houlton, & Perry, 2021)

Over the past five decades, food availability has been greatly enhanced through productivity gains in the agricultural sector. Continuation of such trends will be critical to ensuring food security between now and mid-century, as population, incomes, and biofuel use continue to grow. Total factor productivity – a measure of the growth in aggregate output relative to an index of all inputs in both the global crop and livestock sectors actually rose over the past two decades However, there are concerns on some fronts that crop yields for key staple grains may be reaching their biophysical limits in some regions.

This could have an adverse effect on global food availability and prices. The future trajectory of crop yields will also be affected by climate change, although the precise impacts are uncertain and spatially heterogeneous. Depending on location, the temperature and precipitation impacts of climate change may cause crop yields to rise or fall there is also the potential for crop yields to be enhanced via the fertilization effect of rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere (Uris Lantz C. Baldos, 2021)

South Asia has been identified as one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to the impact of climate change. Empirical studies carried out in recent years using the partial equilibrium approach suggest that climate change-induced yield losses in agriculture are becoming a serious concern. In this study, we use a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model to examine the impact of changes in crop productivity due to climate change on food prices and food security in South Asia, focusing on five large countries in the region, namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

Our results suggest that there is likely to be a significant negative impact on food production and prices in all South Asian countries due to climate change-induced agricultural productivity changes. The results further suggest that countries in this region are likely to face problems of food security given that nearly half of the world’s poor reside in this region and agriculture plays an important role in the gross domestic product (GDP) and employment generation in the region. The results support the need for policy analysts and policymakers in the region to develop climate change adaptation measures that address the likely negative consequences of climate change-induced agricultural productivity losses. (Jayatilleke S. Bandara a, 2014) 

Over the coming decades, climate change will affect food and water security in significant but highly uncertain ways. There are strong indications that developing countries will bear the brunt of adverse consequences. This is largely because of high poverty rates, high vulnerability levels, and low adaptation capacities in the developing world. Furthermore, the rural populations of developing countries—for whom agricultural production is the primary source of direct and indirect employment and income—will be most affected because of agriculture’s direct exposure to climate change.

Among developing regions of the world, Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to fare worst, given that temperatures are generally already high, and most of the region’s inhabitants depend for their livelihoods on rained agriculture. Only 5 percent of cultivated area in the region is irrigated, compared with 37 percent in Asia and 14 percent in Latin America. Finally, national government funds and local incomes that could be brought to bear on adaptation are extremely scarce in Sub-Saharan Africa, and support for agriculture in the region remains low (Ringler, December 2010)

Somalia has faced severe challenges linked to climate variability, which has been exacerbated by conflict and limited governance that persisted for decades. Today climate extremes such as floods, drought, and coastal marine severe systems among others are always associated with the destruction of property and livelihoods; losses of lives lost, migrations, and resource-based conflicts among many other miseries. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has shown that climate change is real and requires sound knowledge of local future climate change scenarios.

The study attempted to provide projected rainfall and temperature change scenarios over Lower Jubba, Somalia. This was done using the downscaled Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment RCMs data. The simulated temperature and rainfall data derived from the CORDEX RCMs ensemble were compared with the observed data. The study focused on the IPCC projected periods of 2030, 2050, and 2070 benchmarks. Analysis of the projected rainfall indicated a decreasing trend in rainfall leading up to 2030 followed by an increase in rainfall with the 2050 and 2070 scenarios.

In the case of temperature, the projections from all the models showed increase in minimum and maximum temperatures in all seasons and sub-periods, like being observed by temperature projections over other parts of the world. 2030, 2050, and 2070 projected rainfall and temperature change scenarios show that Somalia's future development and livelihoods will face increased threats of climate extremes unless effective climate-smart adaptation systems form integral components of national development strategies. (Ogallo, 2018)

Key Points

• Global food security is an assurance that any country has access to food through efficient management.
• Greenhouse gases are gases in the earth's atmosphere that trap heat. During the day, the sun shines through the atmosphere, warming the earth's surface. At night the earth's surface cools, releasing heat back into the air.
• A weather pattern occurs when the weather stays the same for days or weeks at a time. Some common weather patterns include hot and dry weather, wet and rainy weather, and cold weather. If weather patterns go on for too long, they can lead to emergencies like heat waves, flooding, and blizzards.
• Extreme events are occurrences of unusually severe weather or climate conditions that can cause devastating impacts on communities and agricultural and natural ecosystems. Weather-related extreme events are often short-lived and include heat waves, freezes, heavy downpours, tornadoes, tropical cyclones, and floods.
• Climate change is a long-term change in the average weather patterns that have come to define Earth's local, regional, and global climates. 

Overview of Climate Change

Climate change perception is a complex process that encompasses a range of psychological constructs such as knowledge, beliefs, attitudes, and concerns about if and how the climate is changing. Perception is influenced and shaped, among other things, by the individuals’ characteristics, their experiences, the information that they receive, and the cultural and geographic context in which they live (Whitmarsh, and Capstick, 2018). 

Life experiences influence perception, individuals who have been directly affected by extreme climatic events tend to report that the probability of such event happening again is relatively high (Patti and Schroder, 2008; De Matos Carlos et al., 2020). Furthermore, the perception that a person has about climate change can be influenced or modified by the information that she receives (Weber, 2010).

Finally, it should be noted that perception is in part a subjective phenomenon, therefore, different people in the same locality might construct different perceptions of climate change even though they experience the same weather patterns (De Matos Carlos, 2020).

The literature on this topic has slowly grown since then, although it is still scarce compared to that from Africa and South-East Asia. Here we briefly summarize some of the main findings of the studies about Latin America published, in either English or Spanish, during the period 2000–2020. The articles’ selection process was based on some of the steps used in systematic reviews.

For our search, we used the following combinations of keywords or closely related words: climate change (climate, climate variability, global warming, temperature, rainfall), extreme weather events (droughts, hurricanes, tropical storms), perception (understanding), Latin America (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela, North America, Central America, South America), family farms (farms, small producers, farmers, subsistence farms, household, communities, villages), indigenous (indigeneity).

In our search, in addition to Science Direct and Web of Science, we also used Google Scholar. It has been shown that Google Scholar has very good coverage in areas where Web of Science does not, therefore, by using these three databases we have a comprehensive coverage of the literature. The title and abstract of 112 published papers that resulted from the search were analyzed to check if at least one of the objectives of the paper was to empirically analyze the climate change perceptions of farmers in a Latin American country; if that was the case, the paper was included in the revision.

We focused on research published in peer-reviewed journals, the only exception was which was published as a technical report and was the first study to analyze the topic in a Latin American country. At the end of this procedure, 21 scientific articles met the pre-established criteria (Fierros-González, 2021).

Somalia's climate change issue

Somalia is the second most climate-vulnerable country in the world. The country is currently on the brink of famine. Four rainy seasons in a row have failed — a climatic event not seen in at least 40 years. It's expected a fifth rainy season, due to start in October, will fall short, which would be unprecedented, and prospects for the rainy season next year are bleak. These freak events of nature are slated to become the new norm.

The situation is unsustainable. Humanitarian groups say donors are fatigued by the recurring crises. Government and development groups say they know how to begin turning this around — resilience programming that helps rural communities stay put instead of migrating to urban areas. However, it's a matter of ensuring this programming is prioritized and receives adequate investment (Sara Jerving, 2022).

Somalia is one of the world's countries worst affected by global warming, suffering near-constant droughts, heat waves, and floods. Recent flooding in south-central Somalia affected 547,000 people, according to UN estimates, at a time when more than 2 million are food-insecure. Scientists and food safety experts say the climate shocks are not only destroying Somali crops and livestock but are also increasing the levels of toxins in the food that makes it to harvest. The frequent droughts, in particular, have significantly increased toxins in maize, sorghum, and wheat, the main staple foods in the country (Harun Maruf, 2019).

Types of climate-related issues occur in Somali

The climate in Somalia is influenced by a number of factors, including the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), monsoonal winds and ocean currents, jet streams including the Somali Jetstream or Somalia Current, easterly waves, tropical cyclones, and neighbouring Indian Ocean and Red Sea conditions. Somalia is generally arid and semi-arid with two seasonal rainfall seasons. The annual mean temperature is close to 30°С throughout the country. Average monthly temperatures reach their maximum during the months of April through June.

June to September are the hottest months in the north, while December to March mark the hottest weather for the south. Precipitation is generally low across the country and takes the form of showers or localized torrential rains, subject to high spatial and temporal variability. The average annual rainfall is about 200 mm in most parts of the country. Only the northern coastline receives significantly less rainfall (only up to 50 mm) (Sadak Abdi, 2020).

As livestock and agriculture form the basis of the Somali population’s livelihoods, the country is highly vulnerable to the current and future impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is further compounded by the fact that the country is coastal, low-lying, poor, and disrupted by war. These climatic changes are likely to increase in both frequency and severity.

Somalia’s environmental problems include deforestation, overgrazing, soil erosion, and desertification. The UNDP has provided assistance to Somalia to strengthen its national capacity so that it can engage in the Global Environmental Facility and implement programmes to protect Somalia’s fragile and significantly degraded environmental resources (Kolmannskog, 2012).

Somalia drought

Somalia’s ongoing record drought may have killed as many as 43,000 people last year, and half of them were children under the age of five, according to a report released by the government and United Nations agencies. The research released on Monday marked the first attempt to estimate countrywide deaths in a crisis that experts warn is more severe than the country’s last major drought in 2017 and 2018 (Aljazeera, 2023).

This is no “natural disaster.” Human-caused climate change has increased the frequency and severity of droughts, decades of conflict have significantly eroded the country’s institutions, and the combined damage to Somalia’s domestic food production has made the country dangerously reliant on imported grains—specifically from Ukraine and Russia. “If this severe drought persists, none of us will survive,” says 80-year-old Hawo*.

“The drought will sweep both the animals and the people. Droughts are not new to me but to my experience, this is the worst I have ever seen.” “Aside from a protracted civil conflict, Somalia is experiencing its worst drought in 40 years,” says Abdi Rashid Adan Mohamed, an IRC medical officer. “The drought has caused massive displacement, localized famine, epidemic disease outbreaks, and malnutrition (Martha Tadesse, 2023).

Deforestation in Somalia

Charcoal is a key source of energy for Somalia, where few have access to electricity. It has also been exported to countries like Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and the United Arab Emirates. Although Somalia introduced a ban on charcoal and firewood exports in 1969, it has been difficult to enforce. Illegal, unrestricted charcoal production skyrocketed after the Government of Somalia collapsed in 1991.

As the United Nations Development Programme has shown, the growth of the charcoal industry in Somalia has been a source of conflict. Tensions have flared between woodcutters, militias involved in the charcoal trade, and rural communities, whose livelihoods are threatened by deforestation. In 2012, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2036, which banned the export and import of Somalia’s charcoal.

This was followed in 2016 by the launch of the Programme for Sustainable Charcoal Reduction and Alternative Livelihoods (PROSCAL), a collaboration between the United Nations Environment Programme, the United Nations Development Programme, and the Food and Agriculture Organization. The programme has helped Somali officials enforce the ban on charcoal, supported the development of alternative energy sources, rehabilitated degraded land, and helped local residents secure more sustainable jobs (Mohamed Ibrahim Aden, 2022).

Soil erosion Somalia 

In Somalia, soil loss is a major concern for land managers due to its influence on biomass production, surface water quality, and landscape beauty. The risk of soil loss is accelerated by the removal of vegetation, bad land use practices, and negative impacts of urbanization. The political upheavals and consequent insecurity in the country are major limitations for detailed databases and research on soil loss.

About 24 percent of north-western Somalia was depicted to have no significant human-induced soil loss while 68 percent of the region is under the threat of soil loss if no action is taken against the removal of vegetation, land use practices, and policies on land tenure system. About 8 percent of the area is at high risk of soil loss due to the negative effect of urbanization and lack of proper management of steep slopes. This study aims to investigate the effect of soil erosion on crop productivity in the Afgoye district of lower Shebelle Somalia (Yusuf Ali Abdulle, 2022).

Greenhouse gas emissions on the global food security

The future emissions reduction potential in the AFOLU sector has been characterized in the literature as having relatively large emission reductions available at low cost compared with other sectors3,4,5. However, the emissions reduction potentials are understood to be limited, with full (100%) removal not possible regardless of effort in many cases6. Moreover, Hasegawa et al. highlighted remarkable food security concerns associated with the inclusion of AFOLU in climate change mitigation actions; they also compared the impacts of climate change and its mitigation on agricultural production and concluded that the latter would be larger.

Although such impacts are understood to be heterogeneous within any population (for example, low-income consumers are less able to withstand agricultural commodity price shocks), regional averages are nevertheless useful for comparing scenario outcomes. The present study contributes to this discussion by starting with the observation that there are three main channels by which AFOLU-focused climate change mitigation policies may exacerbate food insecurity (Lyon C, 2022). 

One is the promotion of large-scale bioenergy crop expansion; low-emissions scenarios in integrated assessment models (IAMs) have highlighted the potential importance of bioenergy, particularly bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), for reducing costs and enabling deep system-wide emissions mitigation. The consequent competition between food and bioenergy production can cause increased prices and reduced supplies of food crop commodities.

Second, policies that price or constrain non-CO2 emissions from agricultural production can directly increase the costs of food production and thus food commodity prices. The third channel is afforestation policies, which incentivize a reduction in cropland and pastureland supply (Howe PD, 2015).

While these secondary impacts of AFOLU emissions mitigation have been addressed in the literature and one such study proposes inclusive policy designs to prevent adverse side effects, the present body of knowledge has not identified the relative importance of the factors that drive potential food security risk in a single consistent analytical framework. Studies have focused on each element individually; for example, the direct impacts of non-CO2 emissions reductions15 or the implications of bioenergy expansion.

Afforestation has also been addressed individually, albeit for carbon sequestration potential. Some studies have examined the degree of potential carbon sequestration of afforestation and the costs thereof and have warned that food insecurity may result from forest carbon sequestration. A remarkable study incorporated these three factors and climate change impacts on yield but did not consider the stringent climate policy in line with the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the global mean temperature increase to below 2 °C over pre-industrial levels, and limited physical indicators such as emissions, bioenergy, land use and the number of people at risk of hunger are reported (DeNicola E, 2015).

Here we show the relative extent to which energy crop expansion, non-CO2 emissions reduction in the agricultural sector, and afforestation affect agricultural markets and food security under climate mitigation scenarios. Understanding the potential risk of food insecurity associated with these three GHG emissions abatement strategies is key to the design of policies that reduce emissions while minimizing unintended adverse consequences. Other models use exogenous parameters to achieve the scenarios’ specifications.

We found that the models’ representations of non-CO2 emissions pricing were generally consistent, whereas the implementation of afforestation-related policies varied from one model to the next. We also employ a ‘hunger measurement tool’ which encompasses average calorie consumption per person, minimum calorific requirement, and the coefficient of variation (CV) of the food-consumption distribution within countries. This enables us to explore the number of people at risk of hunger. For comparison, we also ran baseline scenarios that excluded new climate policies to extend the historical trend, including land management or regulation. Further scenario assumptions can be found in Methods (Mueller, 2014).

Climate patterns on the global food security

In order to mitigate the effects of climate change on food security, it is essential that governments and organizations take proactive steps to develop strategies for food production and access that can better withstand extreme weather events and climate variability. These efforts should include investment in agricultural infrastructure, diversification of crops and food sources, food storage systems designed for long-term preservation, and training for local farmers on sustainable agriculture techniques. By taking action today to address the impacts of climate change on food insecurity, we can ensure a future where food availability is not threatened by a changing climate.

Two billion people in the world currently suffer from malnutrition and according to some estimates, we need 60% more food to feed the global population by 2050. Yet the agricultural sector is ill-equipped to meet this demand: 700 million of its workers currently live in poverty, and it is already responsible for 70% of the world’s water consumption and 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions. New technologies could help our food systems become more sustainable and efficient, but unfortunately, the agricultural sector has fallen behind other sectors in terms of technology adoption (Sohail, 2019).

Launched in 2018, the Forum’s Innovation with a Purpose Platform is a large-scale partnership that facilitates the adoption of new technologies and other innovations to transform the way we produce, distribute, and consume our food. With research, increasing investments in new agriculture technologies, and the integration of local and regional initiatives aimed at enhancing food security, the platform is working with over 50 partner institutions and 1,000 leaders around the world to leverage emerging technologies to make our food systems more sustainable, inclusive and efficient (Udmale, 2014).

Social protection programmers are essential in this effort, with proven effectiveness in breaking the vicious cycle of poverty and hunger. Social protection covers a wide array of instruments and objectives, encompassing both safety nets and “safety ropes”, i.e., mechanisms that enhance income-generating abilities and opportunities for the poor and vulnerable. Adequate, well-designed social protection would tackle some of the main vulnerabilities of households to climate risks.

Income provided to the poor and hungry through social protection can enable them to access sufficient food to meet their basic nourishment needs, without compromising the future productivity of their livelihoods. Such actions will be particularly efficient if targeted to the needs of women (Muhammad I. Azeem, 2023).

Extreme weather events on the global food security

In its Summary Report for Policy Makers on Climate Change and Land, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded in 2019 that "Climate change has already affected food security due to warming, changing precipitation patterns, and greater frequency of some extreme events ".

Climate change is already hampering crop production across different agro-climatic zones of the world. Changes in the precipitation regime, increasing temperatures, and extremes have been projected for the coming decades all around the world. In Africa for example, significant negative impacts on crop growth season timing and length have been estimated (Muhammad Abid, 2018 ). 

Recent climate model outputs also show that the frequency of both high-intensity rainfall events and dry spells is expected to increase steadily across different climatic zones of the African continent. With the uncertainty still inherent to climate change predictions it remains difficult to attribute single extreme weather events to climate change. However, while the frequency of such events is increasing, exposure to multiple types of events progressively becomes more challenging (e.g. droughts followed by floods) (Whitmarsh, and Capstick, 2018).

Extreme weather and climate events are among the leading causes of global hunger and malnutrition. This effect is particularly evident in low and middle-income countries, where the economy is often highly dependent on agriculture. Also, according to the Global Network against food crises, weather extremes are one of the main factors leading to food crises, together with conflict and socio-economic aspects.

Countries facing the double impact of both conflict and climate shocks in 2017 have suffered significant increases in the severity of acute food insecurity. Climate-related disasters are progressively dominating disaster risk to the point that they account for 80 % of all major internationally reported disasters. Floods, droughts, and tropical storms alone affect food production more than any other factor (De Matos Carlos, 2020).

Global food security 

Food access is ensured when individuals, communities, and countries are able to obtain food in appropriate quantity and quality. Food price spikes and volatility, often combined with losses of agricultural income, follow weather extremes, reducing food access and negatively affecting the quantity, quality, and dietary diversity of food consumed.

Where weather extremes damage occurs with an increased frequency, it can also lead to long-term negative effects on food access including increased poverty, negative coping strategies, and erosion of livelihoods. Additionally, weather extremes can directly impact physical access to food by the disruption of food supply to markets and access to markets by people due to dysfunctional or blocked transport routes and physical well-being issues due to the climate extremes themselves (Kalimba UB, 2020). 

Food utilization refers to the capacity to consume and benefit from food. It depends on what manner food is exploited, and whether a balanced and nutritious diet can be maintained. Food utilization is affected by climate change and extremes if the micronutrient and nutritional content of the crops is altered, or possibly if other crops of a different nutritional value are substituted due to negative climate effects. Also, coping strategies used to face climate shock impacts may lead to a reduction in the quantity, diversity, and quality of the food consumed.

Studies have shown for example, that the nutritional status of children is especially vulnerable to climate-related disasters both in the aftermath of the event and in the long run. Also, food safety issues are involved via the supply chain. Food safety is commonly decreased by climate change and extremes owing to higher rates of microbial growth at increased temperatures (Khanal, 2014).

Conclusion

The growing threat of climate change to the global food supply and the challenges it poses for food security and nutrition requires urgent concerted policy responses and the deployment of all the scientific knowledge and accumulated evidence available. From a food security perspective, the most immediate risks arising because of climate change are from extreme events. Climate change's impact on food safety and public health are closely related to effects on food security and nutrition, and therefore cannot be dealt with separately. Both are emergent properties of the food system, resulting from the interaction of many dynamic factors in ways that resist simple linear projection (Ojo, Baiyegunhi, 2019). 

To provide practical guidance to decision-makers at either the community or national level, there is a need to first develop conceptual frameworks that can explain how food security and climate change work within complex food systems ensuring human health and wellbeing.

1. From this perspective, a more focused approach to research on food security and availability and the sustainability issues linked to food production and distribution can be undertaken in the future: Recognizing the factors that directly and indirectly affect food security
2. A more focused approach to food availability for poor countries that are dependent on food imports
3. An interdisciplinary strategy to tackle the issue of food insecurity will provide a broader view of food insecure sectors while taking into account its intricate social, economic, and environmental components (Khanal, 2014)