Egypt's agriculture sector in risk of climate variability

Climate variability is a term that is commonly used to describe any type of change in climate, whether natural or induced by humans, such as rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, soil moisture loss, and increased evaporation and transpiration.

Climate variability is a term that is commonly used to describe any type of change in climate, whether natural or induced by humans, such as rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, soil moisture loss, and increased evaporation and transpiration. Egypt, which is located in the Middle East and North Africa region, is regarded as a potential hotspot of climate change, with warming and an increase in the frequency of extreme temperatures occurring faster than on a global scale. The researchers discovered that when comparing 2006-2015 extreme temperature data, hot days and nights will become more common at all sites. Other researchers examined the meteorological conditions over Egypt's Safaga Harbour on an hourly basis from 2007 to 2017. The findings revealed a general trend of slight increases in mean annual air temperature and sea level pressure, but a decrease in mean annual relative humidity. Agriculture in risk The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated in 2017, "The manner in which human beings respond to climate variability is critical not only to survival but also to well-being". It highlights the expected effects of extreme weather events caused by climate variability in agriculture in causing crop yield instability and posing a high risk to global production in its 2011 report. Climate variability has posed serious challenges to Egyptian agriculture, resulting in significant negative impacts on crop yield and, as a result, food security. According to academics, during the 1998 growing season, rice plants were subjected to a heatwave during the flowering and grain filling stages, resulting in a decrease in national rice production.Wheat production was also reduced in 2010, as a result of heatwave prevailed in that year by an average of 15% over Egypt.  The World Bank Environment Department highlighted Egypt's agriculture sector's uniqueness, namely that all agricultural land is irrigated with Nile River water. Egypt's population is expected to double by 2060, necessitating increased agricultural production, but the country is vulnerable to climate change due to its reliance on natural resources. Climate-Smart Agriculture The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) introduced a climate-smart approach (CSA) in 2010 with the goal of increasing agricultural productivity and incomes in a sustainable manner, building climate resilience, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It emphasised the importance of changing agricultural management practises, including water and soil management, to ensure their efficient and sustainable use in order to produce more food and adapt to climate change. Climate-smart agriculture has also been recognised as a strategy for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security in the face of new climate-change realities. Through four main action areas, CSA promotes coordinated actions by farmers, researchers, private sector use efficiency in policymakers, and agricultural financing towards climate-resilient pathways: building evidence; increasing local institutional effectiveness; fostering coherence between climate and agricultural policies; and agricultural financing.   Reference FAO (2010). Climate-smart agriculture: Policies, practices and financing for food security, adaptation and mitigation. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. IPCC (2011) Climate change: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. JJ McCarthy, OF Canziani, NA Leary, DJ Dokken, KS White (Eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Khalil AA, Hassanein MK (2016) Extreme weather events and negative impacts on Egyptian agriculture. Int J Adv Res 4(12):1843–1851. Lipper, L., Thornton, P., Campbell, B. M., Baedeker, T., Braimoh, A., Bwalya, M., & Torquebiau, E. F. (2014). Climate-smart agriculture for food security. Nature climate change, 4(12), 1068-1072.‏ Mostafa, A. N., Wheida, A., El Nazer, M., Adel, M., El Leithy, L., Siour, G., & Alfaro, S. C. (2019). Past (1950–2017) and future (− 2100) temperature and precipitation trends in Egypt. Weather and Climate Extremes, 26, 100225.‏ Ouda, S., & Zohry, A. E. H.(2022). Climate-Smart Agriculture.‏ Springer Nature. Tonbol, K. M., El-Geziry, T. M., & Elbessa, M. (2019). Assessment of weather variability over Safaga harbour, Egypt. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 12(24), 1-8.‏ Yates, D. N., and K. M. Strzepek. 1996". Modeling Economy-Wide Climate Change Impacts on Egypt: a Case for an Integrated Approach.” Environmental Modeling and Assessment 1: 119-135.