Climate-induced migration in Tunisia: a fragile agriculture and the move up North

With weather conditions getting more and more extreme, temperatures soaring and rainfall patterns becoming more unpredictable, the natural ecosystems and infrastructure of people and communities around the world are becoming increasingly vulnerable to the destructive character of our changing climate.

And with that, the forced displacement or the willful migration of many is not only induced by typical wars or conflicts as we have always known, but the movement of people is now slowly becoming the by-product of environmental degradation.

The International Organization for Migration defines climate migration as "the movement of a person or groups of persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment due to climate change, are obliged to leave their habitual place of residence" either temporarily or permanently within internal borders or across international boundaries.

For millions, climate change is real and its disastrous effects are already felt: millions who lost their livelihoods due to devastating floods, or went hungry because of failed harvests and drought, or were forced to flee their homes due to rampant desertification, rising sea levels or a lack of clean drinking water. The list is indeed long but the numbers are even more terrifying.

According to UNHCR, since 2008, an annual average of 21.5 million people have been forcibly displaced by weather-related events with these numbers expected to surge in coming decades. In North Africa specifically, the World Bank estimates that climate change is a strong driver for migration and it may push 19 million people to move internally within the region by 2050.

But it is necessary to acknowledge that climate change does not just pose an imminent threat by causing immediate harm to people and infrastructure, it is also a long-term danger that can slowly destabilize societies and economies.

Taking the case of Tunisia as an example, the country faces a dry present and is expecting an even drier future. Its environmental vulnerabilities are mainly showcased through high temperatures and more extreme heatwaves, yearly contracting precipitation, and rising sea levels.

Similarly, as being located in North Africa, one of the most water-stressed regions in the world, Tunisia has also been grappling with a chronic water shortage since the 1990s that is translated through no more than 500m³ of water per inhabitant per year, a threshold that highlights an alarming state of extreme water poverty that if not immediately addressed, will impede any prospect for future development. The UNDP has actually classified Tunisia among the top 20 countries in the world most affected by desertification, with up to 75% of its land area at risk.

In fact, agriculture remains the most affected sector so far further exacerbating food insecurity in the country. Last summer, temperatures reached more than 48 degrees Celsius in the capital city breaking a four-decade record and causing immense wildfires that ravaged through grain harvest. 2023 is also seen as the fourth consecutive year of drought in the country.

On the one hand, temperatures registered in the month of April have shown a leap by about 12 degrees in comparison to normal seasonal rates, and on the other hand, precipitation has decreased by 50% causing an acute reduction in national water reservoirs barely filling 30% of dams and inciting the government to adopt controversial water rationing measures across the nation disproportionately undermining small-scale farmers still reliant on water being distributed from the government.

This year, as depicted by farmers unions, has been catastrophic for harvest with an estimated 800 thousand hectares of cereal crops failing to fully sprout due to the lack of rain. So far, the Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that climate change has caused the agricultural sector in Tunisia losses up to 10% of its production. With the already hard conditions forecasted to get harder, thousands of small-scale farmers facing the brunt of weaker crop yields, especially those located in southern Governorates deemed as climate hotspots, are expected to migrate up North to secure better means of living in the capital or the east coast.

So in response to the degradation of the ecosystems on which they have always relied, the rural exodus has become an adaptation measure for farmers to overcome their increasingly fragile and resource-depleted environments.

Although at the present moment, climate change is not necessarily an alarming driver for the internal movement of farmers in Tunisia, it remains of paramount necessity for the government to act proactively and devise a national strategy to prevent worse scenarios expected to slowly but surely materialize in the foreseeable future.

To ensure that agriculture remains viable, a real and unified paradigm shift in policy is needed. So, the objective is to improve the resilience of the most vulnerable communities by promoting local agriculture and crops that are acclimated to the country's arid climate as well as the sustainable management of water resources and soils.

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