How does water scarcity affect agricultural production in the Middle East?

In the Middle East, water scarcity is having a far-reaching and multifaceted effect on agricultural production, leading to the risk to food security and economic stability in the region. Here’s the impact of the shortage of water on agriculture in this dry region of the world:

Reduced Crop Yields

Across the Middle East, water scarcity cuts crop yields dramatically. Water stress induced by climate change is projected to reduce crop yields, with a particular impact on the main grains. In some instances, the outcome is dire:

Agricultural production could decline by nearly threefold in the Arabian Peninsula. Yemen will lose about 60% of its agricultural output. Climate change is estimated to cause crop yields in the area to decrease between -0.7% and almost -25%.

Changes in Agricultural Practices by Force

Farmers and local officials have been taking extreme steps in response to water shortages:

1. 50% water Iraq: In 2022, the government was stopped for irrigation for agriculture
2. The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria has imposed a rationing policy on farmers and limited them to 25% sowing of their land for some crops (farmer from northern Syria (2023)).
3. Farmers have to dig canals and pump with generators due to sagging water levels, as seen in Raqa, Syria.

Economic Impacts

The drop in agricultural output is hitting the economy hard:

1. A cumulative reduction of more than $2 trillion in farm benefits could occur over the Middle East region compared to a full-water scenario.
2. Just a 20% reduction in water supplies could lead to a loss of nearly $4 billion in factor income to capital in the agriculture sector in Iraq.

Increased Food Imports and Trade Imbalances

Countries in the Middle East are becoming increasingly dependent on food imports as domestic production wanes. Areas such as Iran, the Arabian Peninsula, and Yemen have seen massive reductions in their net agricultural exports. The problem is that this trend of imports can put a strain on national economies and make them more vulnerable to global food price fluctuations.

Environmental Degradation

A water war in agriculture is forcing unsustainable practices. Groundwater reserves are commonly overextracted, meaning that this vital resource is consumed faster than it can be replenished. There is a risk of destruction of natural habitats as farmers try to move to new lands that have not been used in hopes of finding water

Socioeconomic Consequences

The effects of water scarcity on agriculture go beyond the farms:

1. Unemployment and economic hardship of people who rely on the struggling agricultural sector.
2. This has led to increased rural-urban migration, which can contribute to social unrest and strain resources in urban areas.

In summary, water scarcity is critically limiting agricultural production in the Middle East and extends to broader implications for food security, economic stability, and social cohesion across the region. This has made it imperative to adopt more efficient ways of managing water, use sustainable farming techniques, or even change the types of crops we grow in response to a changing climate and an evolving water landscape.